Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: José Ruiz Chico
Author-Name: Antonio Rafael Peña Sanchez
Author-Name: Mercedes Jiménez García
Title:  Análisis de la competitividad de las exportaciones agroalimentarias españolas a nivel regional ante la crisis actual
Abstract: RESUMEN:
El sector agroalimentario puede ser considerado como un sector 
estratégico en nuestra economía (MERCASA (2012)). De hecho, se ha 
mostrado así al afrontar la crisis actual. Bajo este planteamiento, 
hemos realizado un análisis de competitividad de sus exportaciones, para
 identificar las regiones más fuertes y más débiles en el período 
2007-2010. Con estos objetivos, utilizaremos una metodología Shift-Share
 complementada con sus elasticidades. Se concluye que la posición 
estratégica depende de la estructura productiva regional (Jiménez García
  y Peña Sánchez (2013)), destacando Castilla – La Mancha, La Rioja, 
Murcia y Navarra. El análisis econométrico de las elasticidades confirma
 el efecto del sector agroalimentario sobre el desarrollo regional.    
ABSTRACT:
The world economy has suffered since 2008 a great crisis due to the excesses derived
from overvalued assets. Thus, an economic bubble was generated, and its
explosion caused severe consequences, with a final scope not yet delimited.
This has brought the collapse of credit to the real economy and a strong drop
in activity. This crisis has affected to a greater or lesser extent to all
regions and industries, but its effects have been very particular in the case
of agri-food sector.
This sector can be considered a strategic sector in Spanish economy
(MERCASA (2012)). In fact, it has been well shown to face the current crisis.
For example, we can see that although total exports in Spain have fallen by
4.79% in 2007-2010, food exports have increased by 7.24% in this same period.
Thus, this sector constitutes one of the main economic forces of Spain by its
size, its production and export strength. The fortress of foreign food sector
is evident, as it has a positive trade balance in 2011 for a third consecutive
year, with a surplus of 1,077 million euros.
Under this approach, we have performed an analysis of export
competitiveness, to identify the strongest and weakest regions in Spain in the
period 2007-2010, as the previous year to the current crisis and the last year
with available data at both exports as deflators. We have homogenized these
data by passing them at constant prices of 2007.
With such aims in mind, we have use a Shift-Share methodology, both to the
original level of this methodology as such in some of its aspects later
modified (For example, Esteban-Marquillas (1972)). This technique was developed
by Dunn (1960) to determine the explanatory components of changes in economic
variables, splitting up the spatial growth of a variable for a concrete period,
to determine the factors which cause growth differences between regions. This methodology
is a very useful tool for regional analysis to indicate that its growth is due
to structural reasons for having implemented a model of specialization in
dynamic sectors, or other specific regional causes.
The components of the Shift-Share methodology can be reinterpreted as
elasticities, such as the elasticity of locating, to describe other interesting
regional dynamics (Esteban-Marquillas, 1986). This analysis improves the
classical approach because it adds a graphic treatment with helpful and quick
results, linking the growth mechanisms on regional space. These concepts will
be developed to characterize an interesting typology of Spanish regions.
Finally, in a last point about our methodology, and after studying these
elasticities, we will establish econometric relationships between them and the
elasticity of regional development. We have proposed three models using
Ordinary Least Squares regression. 
We will summarize now the partial results. Firstly, we have analyzed the
evolution of total and agricultural exports during the period under study to
compare these magnitudes at a regional level. So we can highlight in general
the regions of Andalusia, Castile La
 Mancha, Extremadura, La Rioja and Murcia because they show an overall
positive profile for global indicators and coefficients of agri-food
specialization. On the other hand, the only regions with all these critical
indicators would be Galicia and the Basque Country, presenting a very negative
evolution.
Regarding the Shift-Share analysis, Castile La Mancha, La Rioja and Murcia are again
the ones which show positive results. Andalusia and Extremadura does not stand
in this point because they have some problems with the Regional Share. As the most
critical regions, Galicia and the Basque Country reappear one more time in this
point, with the worst results in these indicators, while Castile and León
exports only get better thanks to the National Shift.
Regarding the analysis of the Shift and Share elasticities, it can be
concluded that in the case of Aragon, Asturias, Balearic Islands, Catalonia,
Galicia and the Basque Country, the sectoral structure of their economy has a
positive effect on growth, thanks to a provision of adequate factors. On the
other side, it would have important growth problems in some regions, previously
presented as successful, as in the case of Castile - La Mancha, Canary Islands,
Extremadura, La Rioja,
Murcia and Andalusia. Design problems would take place in their sectoral
structure, where recession sectors prevail over others theorically more
successful.
In short, to sum up as global final conclusions, it can be concluded that
the strategic position depends on the regional production structure. Through the
study of the variables associated with these analyses, we can verify the
competitiveness of the Spanish food sector in exports, over non-agri-food ones,
according to the development of these indicators. Therefore, this sector can be
described as a key one in the Spanish economy to enhance its external
competitiveness. We can characterize it as a viable way to overcome the current
economic crisis.
A similar conclusion can be drawn from the econometric analysis. The
elasticity of regional development shows a positive and significant
relationship with an improvement of the elasticities of attraction and location
agri-food sector. However, the ratios would be more negative for non-agri-food
sectors. It can be also verified then that a potentiation of the agri-food sector
could have a positive impact on regional development.
In regard to the results of the disaggregated regions, notable differences
between them can be seen. Specifically, we can highlight the regions of Castile
- La Mancha, La Rioja and Murcia, because
they have demonstrated a great strength regarding exports, presenting very
positive indicators. However, it should be noted that, according to Shift and
Share elasticities, these communities would present important problems of
growth, showing some non-optimal conditions to operate properly.
The Community of Navarre also highlights, although to a lesser extent, that
it is not so specialized in the food industry. Its model of regional development
is based on highly dynamic sectors, although this region presents some
constraints which limits its expansion.
Andalusia, Extremadura, Castile and León, Cantabria and Madrid form the
block of the Spanish communities with a medium - high valuation. It may be
surprising to find Madrid in this group but, undoubtedly, the location of the
headquarters of food businesses in this region has had their effect. In these
regions, in spite of positive developments in agri-food exports, they present
certain obstacles in their sectoral structure, which make their development
more difficult.
Aragon, Catalonia, Canary Islands, Asturias, Balearic Islands and Valencia
would be within the medium-low group in the national scene. Although only the
first two regions have a positive trend in exports, the general view is that
they have a weaker external agribusiness sector than in other regions, in part
because they have stronger non-food sectors. It is noteworthy that some
specialization is seen only in the case of the Canary Islands and Valencia, but
the distinction between these two sectors shows a structure presented as not
optimal under this standard.
Finally, Galicia and the Basque Country only reflect positive results in
the study of the distribution effect and the Shift and Share elasticities.
Despite having an adequate sectoral structure and relatively dynamic
agricultural sectors, these communities would be weaker compared to the rest.
In fact, their food exports fall in constant terms in the study, with better
indicators for no agri-food sectors.
In conclusion, as it is usual in this kind of studies, this analysis needs
to be interpreted as a guideline to improve our economy and it should be
revised as new information becomes available. These conclusions could be useful
to guide and facilitate decision making by the responsibles of economic policy,
in the context of our main customer (EU) and our commercial links with other
neighboring countries, the Latin American markets or other emerging countries.
Definitely, this regional overview may helps to
optimize public policies, taking advantage of the strengths of this sector and
also trying to eliminate the disadvantages to which we have referred. The
actions of foreign promotion of agri-food exports and the signing of international
agreements can be helpful for this purpose. Finally, we should not forget the
promotion of R & D to strengthen this competitive strategic position,
facing the threat of emerging economies. Similarly, we should take some time to
review regional economic structures which have proven to be incorrect or
improved.
Classification-JEL: R1
Keywords: Sector agroalimentario, Comercio exterior, Shift-share, Elasticidad, Agri-food sector, Foreign trade, Shift-share analysis, Elasticity
Pages: 71-99
Volume: 3
Year: 2014
File-URL: http://www.revistaestudiosregionales.com/documentos/articulos/pdf-articulo-2450.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:rer:articu:v:3:y:2014:p:71-99