Summary:
Argentina shows a smoothed downward population growth, which contrasts with the highly volatile and inconsistent behavior of the production and employment level, during the three intercensal periods surveyed by this study.
The topics related to the population dynamics, the economic production and the behavior of the labor market have been studied in an isolated and independent manner, and according to only one theoretical framework. This has conditioned how much is known about the way they are interrelated. The objective of this paper is to probe into the interrelations between the dimensions mentioned above.
We will do so by taking a comprehensive approach, taking advantage of different disciplines and perspectives in order to enrich the theoretical framework used to analyze this issue. Thus, a dynamic theoretical frame will be set, whose aim shall be to contribute to a higher consistency and understanding of the changes over time, drawing on the currently greater availability of empirical data.
The starting point is based on the knowledge that the labor market fails to regulate itself –as is sustained by the neoclassical theory. Among the different market failures that have been reported, we consider the asymmetrical information or uncertainty as the most relevant, since it creates a distortion on the workers’ decisions, especially in the case of migrants, leading to greater unbalances in the labor markets and helping to enhance the inequalities among regions.
It should be pointed out that at a provincial level, an elevated positive net migration rate does not secure a population growth in relative terms, given the high variability that can be observed in natural balances between the Argentine provinces during the period analyzed. Multiple cases of provinces are studied, which in this surveyed period, show a high population growth in spite of having undergone major losses due to their high emigration balances.
In order to see the real impact on the labor market, it is essential to consider the modifications in the age structures of each province that faces an immigration-driven loss or gain of population. Thus, the new demographic structure may or may not represent a greater proportion of working-age population. Besides, it is necessary to take into account the change in people’s willingness to participate in the labor market. The result from the interactions of these factors will determine whether there has been an increase in the workforce offer or not, which is evidenced in absolute and relative terms, or in just one of these measures.
In order to be able to estimate the level of unbalance in the provincial labor market due to migration, it is necessary to compare the relative changes in the activity and employment fees, also taking into account the variations in absolute terms of the total population, the working-age population, the number of employed and unemployed people, between the two censal years.
We have mentioned the production level using two indicators: the Gross Geographic Product (GGP) and the GGP by employed worker. In order to reach our goal, we set out to link the previously mentioned relationship with the change in the economic activity. The latter makes it possible to thoroughly analyze the changes affecting the gross geographic product, the population and the labor market. As a residual value of the calculation, we have been able to estimate the associated productivity level, i.e. considering an increase in absolute terms of the employed population and a decrease in the value of production, a fall in the level of productivity by worker might be the expected consequence. The same would be observed if the opposite scenario were to occur.
Between 1980 and 2010, the Argentine economy grew at an average rate of 2.3% annually, while the population grew by 1.2% on an annual basis. Inside the intercensal periods it is possible to observe major differences in the behaviors of both variables. During 1980-1991 the economic growth was negative, while the population grew slightly above the average of the three decades surveyed. During 1991-2001 the GDP showed a growth slightly above the mean observed during 1980-2010, and the population showed an increase rate of slightly less than the double of the average of the whole period, and in the last intercensal period the average annual production growth rate was more than twice higher than the average growth of the extended 1980-2010 period. The population grew at a lower increase rate than the average value of the whole period, where the greater variability in the production values stood out vs. the population dynamics.
At a provincial level, the Argentine economy showed a high and sustained concentration of production between 1980 and 2010. Only four provinces got 74.9% of the total production in 1980, while those four provinces represented 76.6% of the richness generated across the whole territory by 2010.
There is no clear relationship between the increase in production and employment at total country; on the contrary, in the last two intercensal periods there are inverse relationships between both indicators.
At a provincial level, the economic growths related to the employment rate changes and migration balances are even less certain and more blurred.
In the 1980-1991 intercensal period, the growth of the gross geographic product was positive in half of the provinces. The activity and the employment rate at total country level went up –the former to a greater extent than the latter. Of the 12 provinces with a lower employment offer excess, only 5 that belong to the 13 provinces that had an attractive net migration balance are presented. The migration dynamics does not seem to be a regulating factor of the unbalances seen on the labor market. The modifications in the gross domestic product between 1980 and 1991, when correlated with the relative variations in the employment rates, show a slightly significant correlation coefficient value, which indicates that other factors intervening in this relationship are more relevant, such as the level of productivity. The number of provinces meeting the conditions of attractiveness and of being among the 12 provinces boasting the highest increase in the employment and gross domestic product increase amounted up to 7.
In the 1991-2001 period the employment rate at total country level showed a 23.0% drop. In all provinces it was possible to observe a fall in the employment values –always higher than the activity rate. The 12 provinces boasting the highest economic growth consisted of seven provinces that had the lowest reduction of the employment rate in that intercensal period. Within this latter group, there were five provinces that had a receptive migratory balance. Therefore, six were the provinces meeting the three conditions simultaneously.
In the last intercensal period, the number of provinces among the twelve boasting the highest economic growth and also among the twelve with the greatest employment rate increase is just three, two of which had a positive migratory balance. Furthermore, these provinces are the only attractive ones within the 12 provinces with a greater excess of employment demand. This is indicative of a lack of coordination between the destinations of migrants looking for a job and the provinces where the greatest employment increases could be observed.
During the 1980-2010 period, we can state that there are no clear relationships between the economic growth, the labor market dynamics and migration movements.
The demographic information was obtained from these quantitative sources: Argentine National Population Censuses. As regards the economic dimension, information has been gathered from different sources, such as: PCFI- Torcuato Di Tella Institute, CEPAL (Buenos Aires) and the National Accounts Division of INDEC [National Institute of Statistics and Census].
We consider it necessary to move forward in building a theoretical and conceptual framework through which to widen the scope of interpretations. This implies leaving simplistic views aside, since they reduce social phenomena to a set of casual relationships and a set of isolated knowledge that different disciplines have on a single social fact. This has brought about the lack of progress in topics such as the one discussed in this study. Classification-JEL: R1 Keywords: Dinámica Demográfica, Contribución Del Turismo al Crecimiento Económico, Empleo., Demographic Dynamics, Economic growth, Employment. Pages: 39-65 Volume: 2 Year: 2017 File-URL: http://www.revistaestudiosregionales.com/documentos/articulos/pdf-articulo-2519.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:rer:articu:v:2:y:2017:p:39-65