Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Candelaria Barrios González
Author-Name: Esther Flores Varo
Author-Name: Mª Ángeles Martínez Navarro
Title:  PATRONES DE CONVERGENCIA EN LAS REGIONES ESPAÑOLAS: UNA APLICACIÓN DE LA METODOLOGÍA DE PHILLIPS-SUL
Abstract: Resumen:El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar si las regiones españolas han seguido un proceso de total convergencia entre ellas o si por el contrario presentan un patrón de convergencia en clubs. Para ello se aplica una metodología novedosa basada en el test desarrollado por Phillips y Sul (2007). La convergencia regional se analiza mediante tres variables, la renta per cápita, la productividad del trabajo y el empleo per cápita y para el período 1980-2008. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la existencia de convergencia absoluta en la productividad, mientras que se identifican tres clubs de convergencia para las otras dos variables.Abstract:
The literature on economic growth has placed special
focus on analysing the convergence processes between countries and regions.
Within the growth theories, two alternative approaches have been developed to
explain the differences observed in per capita income across countries over
time. Neoclassical growth models predict a process of convergence between
economies where the relatively poor economies will grow at a faster rate than
the relatively rich ones, while endogenous growth models describe a situation
of non-convergence.
Theoretical developments and empirical studies on
convergence have led to the development of different definitions of the term
and to the use of different methodologies for its investigation (Islam, 2003).
The concepts of sigma and beta convergence have been widely used in empirical
papers. Sigma convergence refers to the reduction in the per capita income
dispersion across economies over time, while beta convergence refers to the
existence of a negative correlation between income growth over time and its
initial level.
The concept of absolute or unconditional
convergence assumes that per capita incomes in the regions will tend to
converge in the long term to a single steady state, regardless of their initial
conditions. In contrast, the conditional convergence hypothesis holds that each
economy converges to its own stationary state, so that economies will converge
with one another in the long run if they have similar structural
characteristics (Galor, 1996).
Neoclassical growth models lead to the hypothesis of
conditional convergence between economies, but also to the hypothesis of
convergence clubs, which proposes that regions with similar economic structures
can converge to different steady states if they start from different initial
conditions. Therefore, although certain regions have globally heterogeneous
growth paths, they may be gathered into subgroups that exhibit homogeneous
growth dynamics.
At the international level, the empirical evidence
confirms the existence of convergence clubs between countries (Durlauf and
Johnson, 1995; Canova, 2004, Phillips and Sul, 2007, Monfort et al., 2013,
Borsi and Metiu, 2015), as well as between regions (Postiglioni et
al., 2010; Bartkowska and Riedl, 2012; Rodriguez et al., 2016; Tian et al.,
2016; von Lyncker and Thoennessen, 2016). However, there is still little empirical evidence
for the existence of convergence clubs in the Spanish economy, even though a
few papers have been written in this regard. Indeed, some research has provided
evidence of convergence clubs between Spanish regions since the late 1970s,
clubs that remain to this day (Perez, 2000, Goerlich et al., 2002, Montañes and
Olmos, 2014, Brida et al., 2015), although none has used a methodology like the
one used in this article. Perez (2000) notes that the convergence process for
per capita income in Spain’s Autonomous Communities during the period 1955-1995
can be characterised by subgroups of regions that converge to different
stationary states. Goerlich et al. (2002), examining the convergence of Spanish
regions during the period 1955-2000, find, by the end of the period, the
existence of two convergence clubs both when they use per capita income and
labour productivity as a variable. Brida et al. (2015) apply a nonparametric
clustering approach to the per capita income data of the Spanish Autonomous
Communities to analyse regional convergence during the period 1955-2009. Their
results indicate the presence, since the late seventies, of two convergence
clubs, one more homogeneous composed by the richer regions, and another more
heterogeneous formed by the remaining regions. They also note that there has
been more convergence among the regions in the first club and a gap between
clubs in the last two decades. However, as the authors point out, these clubs
have not remained stable over time, with their numbers ranging from three to
five. Finally, Montañes and Olmos (2014), using two different indicators, per
capita income and an indicator of human development, study the possible
stochastic convergence between Spanish regions for the period 1980-2010. The
results show, for the end of the period, the existence of two distinct
geographical areas (for the two indicators used), which is interpreted by the
authors as evidence of different convergence clubs.
Bearing this in mind, this paper contributes to the
existing literature by providing some new evidence on the regional
converge process in Spain. More specifically, the aim of this work is to analyse whether Spanish regions display a full
convergence process among them or if, on the contrary, they form convergence
clubs.
<p style="" text-align:justify"="">The contributions of
this work are twofold. On the one hand, this paper provides new evidence on the
existence of regional convergence clubs in Spain. On the other hand, even
though there are various estimation methods that can be applied to test club
convergence hypotheses, this paper focuses on
the implementation of a new methodology, which to the best of
our knowledge, has not been applied to
the Spanish case. In particular, this work uses the new panel convergence
methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007). 
<p style="" text-align:justify"="">Phillips and Sul's
methodology introduces a
cross-sectional study, by means of an analysis of heterogeneous time series in
the parameters of a neoclassical growth model, in order to take into account
the heterogeneity of the transitional temporary variable analysed. This approach has clear advantages over other
alternative methods. Firstly, it can be used to endogenously identify groups of
regions converging towards the same growth path, and not by applying a
predetermined criterion. Secondly, although a full convergence hypothesis can
be rejected, this approach makes it possible to identify convergence clubs
among regions, as well as the divergent regions. In addition, the speed of the
convergence parameter can also be estimated with this methodology, which allows
distinguishing the relative convergence empirically.
The regional convergence process is analysed
considering three variables: income per capita and its main components, GDP per
worker and employment per capita for 17 Spanish regions in the period
1980-2008. Data comes from the regional dataset BD.MORES.
The empirical results obtained in this research
confirm the existence of full convergence for GDP per worker. However, there is
also evidence for the existence of convergence clubs in terms of both income
per capita and employment in Spanish regions.
Regarding income
per capita, our findings suggest the existence of three convergence clubs, which converge to different
income levels: high, medium and low; whereas no divergent region was
identified. 
With respect to
employment per capita, the results are quite similar to those above for income
per capita. We identify three clubs, but no divergent region was detected.
The composition
of clubs respect both variables, income and per capita employment, which
remained relatively stable in the period analysed. Only four regions (Asturias,
Cantabria, Castile and Leon and the Basque Country) exhibited differences in
the composition of the clubs. The differences in the clubs' configuration may
be explained by the different behaviour of labour productivity in these
regions.
Finally, it is
worth noting that this paper is the first step in our research. A deeper
analysis of thefactors
responsible for the formation of convergence clubs in Spain must be undertaken
in order to provide useful insight to policy makers regarding the mechanisms
needed to achieve economic and social cohesion amongst regions.
Classification-JEL: R1
Keywords: Clubs de convergencia, Test Log T, Andalucía (españa), Análisis regional, Convergence Clubs, Log T Test, Andalusia (spain), Regional analysis
Pages: 165-190
Volume: 2
Year: 2017
File-URL: http://www.revistaestudiosregionales.com/documentos/articulos/pdf-articulo-2524.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:rer:articu:v:2:y:2017:p:165-190