Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nieves Lagares Díez
Author-Name: María Pereira López
Author-Name: Erika Jaráiz Gulías
Title:  UNA LECTURA ESPACIAL DE LA COMPETICIÓN POLÍTICA EN LAS ELECCIONES AUTONÓMICAS DE 2015 EN CATALUÑA: PARTIDOS Y LIDERAZGO
Abstract: Resumen:Las elecciones autonómicas en Cataluña de 2015 estuvieron marcadas por el proceso de independencia. Estos comicios supusieron importantes cambios para el sistema político y se desarrollaron en un espacio bidimensional, definido por el cleavage ideológico y el identitario. Entorno a estos ejes y a la relación más o menos desigual entre ambos, se posicionaron los partidos políticos, los líderes y los electores; articulándose en consecuencia, el espacio de competición política. Bajo el prisma que nos ofrecen los modelos espaciales de voto analizamos en este trabajo estas cuestiones, así como el impacto que sobre la composición del voto han podido tener.Abstract:
The regional elections held in Catalonia on September
27, 2015 were clearly marked by the independence process, which has meant
important changes for the political system. These elections have been developed
in a space of two-dimensional political competition, defined by two cleavages:
ideological and identity. Revolve around these two axes and the unequal
relationship established between them, the political parties that take part in
these elections have been positioned, the political leaders have been placed
and the voters have been self-positioned.
On this basis, the aim of this paper is to analyse the
relationships built around these spaces by the voters with political parties,
with their leaders; to finish determining the influence that these positions
have had on the formation of the vote to the different political parties;solating these effects, and excluding intentionally
from the analysis other classic important variables in the explanation of vote.
Through a first descriptive analysis, we have
addressed the spatial analysis of competition, identifying through both axes
what has been the positioning of parties, leaders and voters. This first
analysis shows a clear prevalence of the importance of the identity axis in the
definition of political competition, moderately differentiated depending on the
parties and leaderships, which is confirmed by an Multiple Correspondence
Analysis. It also outlines the competitive advantage that the leaders would
have played in this process in order to shape the strategies of their parties,
becoming a enablers of the positioning of the voters, as well as sometimes
building "shared leadership" that would allow the maximization of the
competitive advantage.
Subsequently, and from the perspective spatial models
of voting, more specifically, proximity models, the calculation and analysis of
voters' euclidean distances with respect to their parties and leaders is
addressed. This analysis allows us to strengthen the first descriptive findings
of the positioning in both axes, establishing the existence of a greater
clarity of positioning of voters in the identity axis, where the levels of
concurrence of distances are larger than in the ideological axis, both in the
case of the parties as in the case of the leaders.
Finally, a multivariate analysis allows us to
identifying, through the adjustment of eighteen logistic regression models, the
weight and effect that the distances to the different parties and leaderships
have had on the voting behavior of each of the parties that obtained
parliamentary representation. The results of these models, lead to the
following fundamental conclusions: a) the effect that the identity issue has
had on the structuring of the electoral competition of the different parties
and leaders in these elections and the difference of this impact depending on
the political formation; b) the importance that leaderships would have had as
enablers of the positioning of voters around the cleavages of competition,
allowing in many cases to define voting behavior, with a higher impact than the
weight of the party brand; and finally, c) the hard confrontation existing, in
ideological terms, but fundamentally identity, between the two main actors of
the independence process, JxSí and the PP as a reflection of the position of
the central government.
Classification-JEL: R1
Keywords: Modelos Espaciales de Voto, Cleavages, Comportamiento Político, Spatial Models of Voting, Political Behaviour
Pages: 71-102
Volume: 2
Year: 2021
File-URL: http://www.revistaestudiosregionales.com/documentos/articulos/pdf-articulo-2613.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:rer:articu:v:2:y:2021:p:71-102