Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carmen Ortega
Author-Name: José Manuel Trujillo
Author-Name: Oñate Pablo
Title:  El surgimiento de la derecha radical en España: la explicación del voto a VOX en las elecciones andaluzas de 2018
Abstract: Resumen:Este artículo analiza el apoyo electoral a Vox
—partido de derecha radical populista— en las elecciones andaluzas de 2018
—primeras en las que obtuvo representación en España—, aplicando en una
aproximación cuantitativa los principales modelos explicativos sugeridos por la
literatura comparada para dar cuenta del éxito de este tipo de formaciones. Los
resultados ponen de manifiesto que el principal factor influyente fue la afinidad
ideológica y programática, en especial en relación con la unidad nacional. Por
el contrario, no aparecen evidencias tan sólidas sobre el impacto de la situación
de precariedad socioeconómica ni de las actitudes hacia la inmigración.  Abstract:
Until recently, Spain
was one of the few European democracies lacking a populist radical right party.
The Andalusian 2018 regional election opened the door of the regional
parliament to Vox, a good example of the populist radical right party family:
Vox gained a 11% vote share and 12 seats in the regional parliament, supporting
a right-wing government in the region (for the first time after 36 years of
governments by socialist PSOE). In the national and regional elections that
followed the Andalusian 2018 regional one Vox increased its results, gaining
access to a number of regional parliaments and to the national one, becoming
part of the political landscape and influencing governments formation and
political national and regional agendas.
This article analyses
the electoral support for VOX in that Andalusian 2018 regional election. Of
course, that support must be understood as a multifaceted and multidimensional
phenomenon due to factors in the micro, meso and macro levels, which
explanation is to be found both in the demand, offer and contextual
perspectives.  The aim of the paper is to
tests several theoretical approaches suggested by the comparative literature to
explain the vote for the populist radical right parties.
Most of the
explanations of the vote for the populist radical right parties in the
comparative literature can be grouped in three different approaches or models.
The sociological model understands that the reasons explaining the vote for
popular radical right parties vote are to be found in the socio-demographic
traits of the electorate, as well as those trends raised by the socio-economic
deprivation or social uncertainty raised with the globalization and the
financial crisis starting in 2008/2010. The Modernity losers or globalization
losers would vote for populist radical right parties due to their increasing
social, cultural and economic uncertainty and deprivation. The second approach
is the one that understands the vote for populist radical right parties as a
model of ‘protest vote’: voters upset with the traditional mainstream parties
and the way they manage the political system (‘politics as usual’) would look
for new alternatives when casting their vote. The populist radical right
parties appear as a good ‘new’ alternative to their eyes. The third model
explains the vote for these populist parties with similar factors traditionally
used to explain the vote for mainstream traditional parties: ideological and
party manifesto proximity to those of the popular radical right parties, when
traditional ones have leant to the center of the political spectrum and don´t
pay attention (or not in the way those electors think they should) to new
issues: nationalism, nativism, anti-immigration, law and order, traditional
values, strong charismatic leaders, etcetera. This third model also pays
attention to contextual factors (such as immigration and unemployment figures)
or institutional ones (such as decentralization degree or the electoral system
features).
In order to test
these models, we post several hypotheses and test them using binomial logistic
regression models, analyzing both the regression coefficients and the marginal
effects. We used data from the post-electoral survey number 3.236 conducted by
Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (N= 2.913 cases). We built our
contextual variables with data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Our
explaining or independent variables are the following ones: For the
socio-demographical variables, we took into account sex, age, education, social
class, and employment situation. To gauge the protest vote we considered
sentiments of political inefficiency, negative attitudes towards politics, and
negative assessment of mainstream political party leaders. Finally, in order to
measure the relevance of ideology or political position towards relevant
issues, we took into account ideological parties and self-placement,
self-position regarding immigration, law and order, preferred model of territorial
organization of the state, and political corruption.
The analysis of our
results shows that the main factor explaining the vote for Vox is ideology and proximity
to its manifesto proposals, with a remarkable significance of the one regarding
the preferred model of territorial organization of the state (particularly, the
option “a centralized state”, given the relevance of this issue in Spain, after
the October 2017 independence declaration approved by the Catalonian
Parliament). Therefore, even though several factors and approaches are to be
considered to a larger or shorter extent, the third explanatory model of the
vote for the populist radical right parties (factors traditionally used to
explain the vote for other parties) is the most relevant one. We found no
strong evidence of neither immigration nor socio-economic deprivation impacting
the vote for the radical party. On the one
hand, "higher" socioeconomic strata show a greater probability of
voting for Vox compared to that registered among unskilled manual workers; on
the other, unemployment has a significant and positive effect on the vote for
Vox compared to the vote for the two parties on the right (but not compared to
the vote for the PSOE and AA), an effect that, in any case, is nuanced when
controlled by the ideological variable.
We are convinced
further analyses will test the relevance of contextual factors, and the
importance of sub-regional (electoral district/provincial) political
opportunity structures, giving the regional-level aggregated could be hiding
differences that could, in the last instance, explain the differences in the
vote for the populist radical right party. 
This analysis of the vote for Vox in the Andalusian
regional 2018 elections provides the explanation for the upsurge of this kind
of party in Spain. The success of this party in the national and regional
elections that followed the Andalusian one offers new cases to test the
findings of our analysis. Spain in no-longer different regarding the lacking of
a populist radical right party in their national and regional political arenas.
Learning what factors explain its success will help us to understand what its
future may be.
Classification-JEL: R1
Keywords: Vox, Partidos de Derecha Radical, Extrema Derecha, Voto Ideológico, Voto de Protesta, Elecciones Autonómicas, Andalucía, España., Radical Right Parties, Extreme Right, Ideological Voting, Protest Vote, Regional Elections, Andalusia, Industrial Location, Portugal, Spain.
Pages: 127-156
Volume: 2
Year: 2022
File-URL: http://www.revistaestudiosregionales.com/documentos/articulos/pdf-articulo-2634.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:rer:articu:v:2:y:2022:p:127-156