Integración económica México-Estados Unidos y su aprovechamiento regional en México

Leonardo Egidio Torre Cepeda, Joana Cecilia Chapa Cantú, Eva Patricia González González


Se aplica el Método de Extracción Hipotética en un contexto multi-país para estimar la producción y el valor agregado bruto (VAB) de México vinculados con la actividad económica de Estados Unidos (EUA); y viceversa. Además, se emplea el Modelo de Oferta de Ghosh Regional para cuantificar la producción bruta sectorial de las regiones mexicanas con ligas productivas con EUA. Los principales resultados muestran el significativo vínculo económico entre ambos países, por ejemplo, el 14.2% del VAB de México está asociado a la economía estadounidense, y el norte y centro de México son las regiones con mayor relación productiva con EUA.


The increasing productive integration and the development of supply chains that today characterize international trade have led countries to evolve from just trading partners to partners in production. This has led specialists to consider alternatives to the export flows of goods and services metric when attempting to capture the welfare effects associated to international trade. Wang et al. (2015) argue, for example, that exports of final goods embed a high content of imported intermediate products, so that their gross flows do not adequately capture the true profits that stem from them. In the specific case of Mexico, Blyde (2014) reports that 44% of the country's value of total exports comes from other nations; while a study of Banco de México (2016) estimates that from its total value added, just over 20% is linked to exports of final goods, and out of this figure 13 percentage points are linked to Global Value Chains. In the case of the manufacturing industry, around 43% of its value added is related to the external sector, out of which 20 percentage points are associated with Global Value Chains. Considering the above, this work has two objectives. The first is to provide of a measure of the degree of economic integration between Mexico and the United States in a global context; that is, considering not only their bilateral commercial and productive relationship, but also considering the economic relations that both have with the rest of the world. The second is to identify which Mexican regions (i.e., Northern, North-Central, Central and South) have the strongest economic ties to the United States. To address the first point, the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) is used (Dietzenbacher et al., 1993). Conceptually, this method “extracts” an economy from a world input-output model to examine how relevant economic variables of the remaining economies in the model change. In this work, the 2016 World Input-Output Matrix [Timmer et al., 2016] is used to apply the HEM in a global context and estimate changes in gross production and value added of the US economy if, hypothetically, Mexico were isolated from the global economy. The same estimates are made for Mexico if the economy extracted were that of the US. It should be emphasized that, since we are working with a world input-output matrix, the estimations also consider readjustments in purchases and sales of inputs and final products that the US (Mexico) would carry out with the rest of world if Mexico (the US), hypothetically, disappeared. The HEM indicates that extracting the US economy from the global economy would cause a fall of $409,951 million USD in Mexico’s gross output, and $174,418 million USD in Mexico’s value added. When Mexico is removed from the world economy, gross output of the US falls $353,690 million USD, while its value added contracts by $152,207 million USD. When the above figures are expressed in terms of their respective gross production totals, the extraction of the US economy reduces Mexico’s gross output in 19.24%; while the extraction of Mexico causes a contraction of 1.14% in US gross output. In terms of value added, the contractions are 14.21% and 0.88%, respectively. In order to identify the Mexican regions with stronger economic linkages to the US economy, a strategy was adopted in which equal relative sectoral shocks were defined for the Mexican regions as a result of a drop in US economic activity and, from these, each region’s total reaction was derived. The estimates suggest that the larger is a region's reaction to the shock, the larger is its link to the US economy. This strategy required the following steps. First, the US economy was “extracted” from the global economy and the percentage changes that such extraction exerted in Mexico’s value added, by sector, were obtained. Second, the structure of percentage changes in sectorial value added at the country level was applied to each of the four regions of Mexico, implying that identical relative sectorial shocks were used in each region as a result of extracting the US from the global economy. Next, for each of these percentage changes in sectorial value added by region, its respective absolute change was calculated. Finally, the change in a region’s gross output linked to the change in the value added of a given sector of the same region was obtained by applying to the latter the corresponding input multiplier of the Ghosh Regional Supply Model (Dietzenbacher, 1997). In this model, it should be noted, the input multiplier quantifies the increase in gross output of all economic sectors in a given region in response to an increase in a particular sector’s value added of that region. The estimates indicate that a hypothetical extraction of the US economy from the world economy would lead to different levels of contraction in regional gross output in Mexico, with the North experiencing the largest reduction (-30.3%), followed by the Central (-29.1%), the South (-25.2%), and the North-Central (-15.4%) regions. These results imply that the North is the region with the strongest link to US economy, followed by the Central, South, and North-Central regions, in that order. The methodology also allowed to identify how the contraction in gross output was allocated among the different economic sectors. In particular, it is estimated that out of the total drop in Mexico's gross output that results from extracting the US economy from the global economy, 42.5% corresponds to Manufacturing; 21.6% to Mining; 16.4% to Commerce; 11.1% to Services; 6.5% to Agriculture; 1.8% in Generation and Distribution of Electricity, Gas and Water, and 0.10% in Construction. In summary, the results of this paper indicate that 14.2% of total value added in Mexico is linked to US economic activity, while at the sectorial level, the importance of the US economy is most evident in manufacturing and mining. Finally, it was determined that the Mexican regions with stronger economic ties to the US economy are the Northern and Central regions, followed by the Southern region, where most of the oil industry is located.

© Revista de estudios regionales 2014 Universidades Públicas de Andalucía