Miriam Valdés-Ibarra, Edgar-David Gaytán-Alfaro


En el presente trabajo se analiza la estructura productiva del estado de Zacatecas, México, como referente de una estrecha diversidad económica. Se prueba la hipótesis referente a que una limitada diversidad productiva conlleva escenarios prospectivos de crecimiento económico definidos por alta inestabilidad. El análisis sectorial aplicado, proveniente de la lógica de portafolio de economía financiera, provee escenarios contrafactuales que permiten identificar los sectores que abonan a una mayor diversidad y a una menor volatilidad del crecimiento económico. Los resultados actúan como referente normativo para regiones que buscan mecanismos metodológicos que impulsen su reconversión productiva basada en una mejor relación crecimiento-volatilidad.


Introduction Taking into account the non-ubiquitous and anisotropic nature of the endowment of natural resources and production factors, it gives rise to the formation of patterns of specialization and productive vocations of the regions that, in turn, constitute a causal element of the exchange needs and, with it, the emergence of marketing networks. The regional economic structure is a distinctive feature of how an economy can reward the production factors and define its growth dynamics pattern. A highly specialized structure can lead to high growth volatility scenarios exacerbated when specialization focuses on activities of extractive nature defined by little value addition and limited multi-sector articulation effect. Since the commercial opening in Mexico, there have been significant economic structures changes of the regions that have led to the study of the economic growth patterns. As a reference to this, this work studies the case of the state of Zacatecas, Mexico, whose productive structure is based on a substantial presence of non-oil, metallic and non-metallic mining activity. It is a less diverse region from the perspective of the relative weight of its economic activities. Zacatecas has presented a highly unstable economic growth pattern, with sudden cycles of non-sustained economic expansion and pronounced contractions. According to the theoretical and empirical basis that supports this research, it has a growth path that is constrained and volatile. Methodology Some studies support the hypothesis that a diverse economic structure promotes economic growth and favors stability since a diversified economy is less susceptible to crisis scenarios and demand shocks (Kort, 1981; Brewery, 1985; Glaeser et al., 1992; Malizia & Ke, 1993; Siegel et al., 1995, among others). Dissart (2003) establishes that input-output models are increasingly used to analyze the relationship between diversity and economic stability and its effects on growth levels. The Input - Product Models constitute a valuable tool because they allow modeling a regional structure regarding production, consumption, and trade flows, incorporating the level and mix of exogenous final demands. Furthermore, the economic performance is modeled as a direct function of the regional economic structure. The methodology used in this work is the framework proposed by Siegel et al. (1995), which starts from the use of an Input-Output model and incorporates Markowit's (1959) portfolio model intending to evaluate the risk (measured by the variance of the gross value of production) on the growth related to a specific economic structure. Using the Mexican Input-Output Table for the year 2013, published by INEGI, a regional input-output model for the state of Zacatecas is obtained through the Flegg et al. (1995) formula. After that, the Siegel et al. model is employed to get the levels of economic performance as a ratio of the growth rate of the gross value of production and the variance associated, and to model distinct structure scenarios. The study covers a period from 2003 to 2018. Additionally, hypothetical counterfactual scenarios are built to identify the sectors that provide greater economic growth and less volatility. Main Results There is evidence that the production growth is directly proportional to the growth in the levels of final demand and that in Zacatecas. 80% of production and total final demand are concentrated in 9 of 31 economic sectors, highlighting Commerce activities, non-oil mining, construction, beverage and tobacco industries, and the primary sector. In addition, since the productive structure of Zacatecas is based on the leading role of the metallic and non-metallic minerals mining, the region has presented a significant increase in its volatility levels (going from a variance value of 32 to 61 in 2018) and an economic growth restricted by its current economic structure. Mining activity, even when it has the capacity to generate growth rates above the national average, is linked to instability scenarios due to its support in a fragile and volatile price structure. Thus, from the perspective of the sectoral economic analysis, the results of the counterfactual scenarios urge, in particular, the state of Zacatecas to accelerate its dynamics of diversification of economic activity based on alternative economic sectors to the mining of metals and minerals. Under the different simulation scenarios carried out, it is obtained that the economy of Zacatecas could reduce its volatility without sacrificing economic dynamism, only if the implementation of policies that substantially modify the economic structure of the region is carried. The distinct scenarios support the hypothesis about reducing the weight of mining activity. Also, it is obtained that the following sectors contribute to promoting economic growth and reducing the volatility: 311-Food industry; 313-314-Textile industry, 331-332 Basic Metalics Industries; 48-49 Transport, mail and storage, 61 Educational services, 72 Temporary accommodation and food and beverage preparation services, 52 Financial and insurance services. Thus, policies that promote economic diversification will help mitigate the risk in prospective growth and access higher economic growth rates, which are stagnant. Conclusions The methodology presented is compatible to test the hypothesis of the direct relationship between diversity and growth. The detailed sectoral analysis provides elements of productive restructuring that offer certainty regarding the stability in economic growth. The productive structure of Zacatecas is supported by the leading role of the metallic and non-metallic minerals mining industry. This economic activity has brought with it a vital capacity to generate growth rates above the national average. Still, at the same time, these rates have presented high levels of instability explained not only by the extractive nature of mining but also by the limited capacity of the productive structure of the state to diversify and promote productive reconversion scenarios. The boom in mining activity is supported by a volatile price structure that also has few linkages to the rest of the economy. Under the methodology used, it is obtained that the entity could achieve higher levels of growth, with moderate risk levels from the implementation of actions aimed at diversifying the economic structure of the state. The methodology presented is compatible with the objective of testing the hypothesis of the direct relationship between diversity and growth. The results obtained seek to be a normative reference for those regions searching for a methodological mechanism to promote economic reconversion based on more diverse economic structures.

© Revista de estudios regionales 2014 Universidades Públicas de Andalucía